Imagine there are 100 tickets, and each one costs $1. Out of those 100 tickets, only one is a big winner, worth $50. The rest of the tickets are losers.
Now, if you buy one ticket, your chance of winning is like one out of a hundred, or 1%. So if you buy all the tickets, it will cost you $100, and you will win a single $50 prize. So you will lose $50 if you buy all the tickets.
Lets say, someone goes in and buys 60 tickets, and doesn't win the $50 prize. That night, the lottery website updates. Now there are 40 tickets left, with a grand prize of $50. So if you buy all 40 remaining tickets, it will cost you $40, and you will win $50. A $10 profit!
So, if you buy all the remaining tickets, you'll definitely win that big prize! It's like a guaranteed win!
On this website, we show something called the "score". If the score is over 1, it means you could buy all the tickets left and make money. AKA: A positive expected return.
------
Now, for real scratch-off games, there are multiple prizes, all with different odds, and way more total tickets.
There could be millions of tickets out there, with 20 different prizes, all with different odds.
It would be impossible to do the math for each game yourself, especially when the odds update every night...
So we do it for you! Just check back on this website to see the lottery games with the best odds.
If you're gonna play, you might as well make sure the odds are in your favor!
Keep in mind that the expected return is just an estimate based on probabilities. Actual outcomes can vary, but understanding the expected return can help you make smarter decisions when playing scratch-off games.
Good luck!
When it comes to draw games, understanding the expected return can help you make informed decisions. The expected return is a way to figure out how much money you can expect to win on average for each dollar you spend on tickets.
To calculate the expected return for a draw game, you need to know two things: the probability of winning each prize and the amount of each prize.
First, we figure out the probability of winning each prize. This involves looking at the odds of matching different numbers in the draw.
Next, we multiply the probability of winning each prize by the amount of each prize, by the cost of each ticket. This gives you the expected value of each prize. For instance, if the jackpot prize is $600,000,000, the probability of winning is 1 in 300,000,000, and a ticket is $2, then the expected value of the jackpot prize is $1.
Since the odds & ticket price stay the same, we can determine at what point the game becomes profitable. For example, if the jackpot is $300m, then each $2 ticket we buy, we will on averge lose $1. If the Jackpot is $1.2b, then each $2 we spend, we will on average win $4!
Since there are multiple prize tiers, and it's not just the jackpot, we add up the expected values of all the prizes to get the overall expected return. This tells you, on average, how much you can expect to win for each ticket you buy.
Keep in mind that the expected return is just an estimate based on probabilities. Actual outcomes can vary, but understanding the expected return can help you make smarter decisions when playing draw games.
Good luck!